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The word upset gets bandied about a lot in sports contexts. But what actually constitutes an upset isn’t always cut and dried. Sometimes it’s a matter of whom the books identify as the favorite, but often it’s simply a matter of perception.
But as far as March Madness and the NCAA men's tournament is concerned, the NCAA record book provides its own definition of an upset on the basis of tournament seeding. For our purposes here then, we’ll use that guideline and say that an upset is a win by a team seeded five places or more below its opponent. In the round of 64, ergo, all the 7-10 and 8-9 games are essentially considered toss-ups.
So our aim here is to attempt to identify the true first-round upset candidates in the men’s tourney field seeded 11th or lower. There are usually a few, but finding the right ones isn’t always easy. (Full disclosure: we went 0-for-5 in this space last year – but we press on.) Here are five upset candidates to consider as you fill out your bracket.
No. 13 Samford defeats No. 4 Kansas
If you were watching the selection show on Sunday when Samford’s name appeared on the bracket and wondered what the heck the announcers meant by ‘Bucky Ball,’ they were referring to Bulldogs coach Bucky McMillan. Hired by Samford in 2020 after a successful high school coaching career in his home state of Alabama, he has the Bulldogs in the Big Dance for the first time since 2000, and they might just be in a position to stick around a while.
For one thing, the Bulldogs have depth, something the Jayhawks don’t have in abundance even when fully healthy. Ten Samford players average double-digit minutes, which allows the Bulldogs to play at a high speed. As a result, Samford averages 86 points a game, good for fifth in the country. They’ll present a tough challenge for Kansas, which will at least be rested after its early exit from the Big 12 tournament but will not have Kevin McCullar Jr. available.
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No. 12 James Madison defeats No. 5 Wisconsin
After opening the campaign with a surprising win at Michigan State and making a brief appearance in the Top 25 this season, the Dukes look to add another chapter by advancing at the expense of another Big Ten squad. Sun Belt player of the year Terrence Edwards (17.4 ppg) is JMU’s go-to guy, but the Dukes have other options as well. The Badgers for their part have regained their early form after a miserable month of February when they lost six of eight, but they’ve come up short in enough close games to have their fans concerned about this difficult opener.
No. 11 New Mexico defeats No. 6 Clemson
Even with an impressive NET score and a run to the conference title game, the Lobos absolutely needed to claim the Mountain West’s automatic bid to join their five conference mates in the field. Now that they’re here and on a roll, they’ll be a dangerous matchup for the Tigers, who have been maddeningly inconsistent all season and have gone 1-3 since the calendar turned to March. Clemson will need to find a solution to stopping New Mexico's backcourt of Jaelen House and Jamal Mashburn Jr. to avoid going home early.
No. 11 North Carolina State defeats No. 6 Texas Tech
Why stop now if you’re the Wolfpack? Their improbable run through the ACC tournament coincidentally landed them on the same seed line where they found themselves a year ago. But this time they have momentum on their side, and the match-up with an athletic but streaky Red Raiders’ team could be more to their liking.
No. 13 College of Charleston defeats No. 4 Alabama
We had the Cougars on our radar a year ago as well. In our defense, they gave eventual finalist San Diego State quite a battle in the round of 64 before coming up six points short. Pat Kelsey had to replace a lot of parts from last year’s squad but got Charleston back to the Dance, earning CAA coach of the year honors in the process. The most notable addition is do-everything forward Ante Brzovic, but mainly it’s the Cougars’ scrappy defensive approach that makes them a threat to the high-octane Crimson Tide.
New Mexico, Oregon and James Madison are the most popular upset picks for the 2024 March Madness men's tournament. Upsets are bound to happen in the first round of the NCAA men's basketball tournament.
Opening future odds from SportsLine consensus pegged UConn as the clear favorite (10-1) to become the first team since UCLA (which won seven consecutive national titles between 1967-73) to three-peat.
numberFire Win Odds: Grand Canyon 47.3% Though Saint Mary's-Grand Canyon won't be the most popular 12/5 upset, it's the most likely. numberFire gives Grand Canyon a 47.3% chance to win -- the highest mark among 12s and a significant difference from their 34.7% implied chance we get from their +188 moneyline odds.
Look for games where you don't think either team will advance to the Sweet 16. Say you really like the 3 seed in a region to make a deep run. This presents the perfect opportunity to gamble on the 11 over the 6. The most important takeaway here is to not overload your bracket with upsets.
Not surprisingly, UConn, the No.1 overall seed and reigning national champions, is the favorite (-195) to win the NCAA Tournament again. The Huskies are one of two top seeds still standing and the only team at minus odds in the futures market, pacing ahead of Purdue, NC State and Alabama.
UMBC became the first 16 seed ever to upset a No.1 seed in 2018, when the Retrievers defeated Virginia and became an overnight sensation. In 2023, FDU became just the second 16 seed to knock off a No. 1, shocking Purdue.
In 20 of the 39 years since the tournament field expanded to 64 teams, at least one No.14 seed has triumphed over a No.3 seed. Only two 14 seeds have ever advanced past the second round: 1986 Cleveland State and 1997 Chattanooga.
A No.15 seed has beaten a No.2 seed in each of the last three years: Oral Roberts over Ohio State in 2021, Saint Peter's over Kentucky in 2022 and Princeton over Arizona in 2023.
1 seed has lost in the first round of March Madness twice before. In 2018, the Virginia Cavaliers were beaten 74-54 by the No. 16 seed UMBC Retrievers, and last season, the Purdue Boilermakers slumped to a 63-58 loss to the Fairleigh Dickinson Knights. Before UMBC blew out Virginia, 16-seeds were 0-135 against 1-seeds.
The title game is set for the women's NCAA March Madness tournament. The South Carolina Gameco*cks will put their undefeated record on the line against Caitlin Clark and the Iowa Hawkeyes — and per usual, South Carolina is favored.
Since seeding began in 1979, 26 No. 1 seeds have won 26 national championships, the most of any seed. The rest of the other seeds have combined for just 18 titles. That means 59.1% of national champions since 1979 were top seeds.
Top seeds own a 154-2 all-time record against 16 seeds. FDU vs. Purdue in 2023 was only the second time the upset has happened. That means 16 seeds have a 1.28 winning percentage against 1 seeds in the NCAA tournament.
1 seed has lost in the first round of March Madness twice before. In 2018, the Virginia Cavaliers were beaten 74-54 by the No. 16 seed UMBC Retrievers, and last season, the Purdue Boilermakers slumped to a 63-58 loss to the Fairleigh Dickinson Knights. Before UMBC blew out Virginia, 16-seeds were 0-135 against 1-seeds.
There have been 53 upsets by 12-seeds since the NCAA tournament field expanded in 1985. Going into 2024, the lower seed was 53-99, equating to a 34.87 win percentage. Here are all of the times a 12 seed has knocked off a 5 seed.
Thirty-two 13 seeds have upset 4 seeds since the NCAA tournament field expanded in 1985. Going into the 2024 NCAA tournament, No. 13 seeds had a 32-120 record all-time. That equated to a 21.05 winning percentage.
Introduction: My name is Velia Krajcik, I am a handsome, clean, lucky, gleaming, magnificent, proud, glorious person who loves writing and wants to share my knowledge and understanding with you.
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