National Weather Service Miami FL
125am EDT Sunday Jun 9 2024
.SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 1200pm EDT Sat Jun 8 2024
Unsettled weather expected this weekend with a mid/upper level trough across the area today and slowly moving off to the east tomorrow, and surface/upper level high pressure over the northern Gulf trying to nose into the area. Morning ACARS soundings across South FL show fairly deep moisture up through about 500 mb, and PWAT (Precipitable Water) values running 2-2.2 inches from west to east. This will allow for efficient rain makers today as we saw this morning across portions of the east coast metro and over towards Naples. While that temporarily stabilized the atmosphere, things should destabilize again late morning into the afternoon as we approach peak heating. Additional showers and storms are expected through this evening. Locally heavy rain will be the main threat, however an isolated stronger storm with gusty winds can't be ruled out especially across the lake region and over into Palm Beach. High temps today will be in the low to mid 90s. Combine that with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s and peak heat indices will be over 100 degrees this afternoon. While some locations may approach heat advisory criteria, the expected afternoon convection and cloud cover will should keep many locations from reaching criteria, so held off on headlines for now.
Convection over the land will wane late this evening and it'll be a mild night with lows ranging from the lower 70s around the lake to around 80 close to the coasts. Overnight precipitation will be almost a carbon copy of this morning with most convection remaining over the waters, however some pre-dawn showers and storms may impact the far southern peninsula again.
On Sunday the mid/upper level trough moves further off to the east, however hi-res models depict a surface trough across the peninsula during the day. This, along with the sea-breezes, should be the primary focus for convection on Sunday. With steering flows remaining light, will need to monitor the threat again for isolated urban flooding across the metro. High temps will be in the low to mid 90s. Depending on how much early morning convection occurs will play a role into whether or not heat advisories will be needed across the metro, but decision will remain tricky with afternoon/evening convection expected.
.SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 1200pm EDT Sat Jun 8 2024
Unsettled weather expected this weekend with a mid/upper level trough across the area today and slowly moving off to the east tomorrow, and surface/upper level high pressure over the northern Gulf trying to nose into the area. Morning ACARS soundings across South FL show fairly deep moisture up through about 500 mb, and PWAT (Precipitable Water) values running 2-2.2 inches from west to east. This will allow for efficient rain makers today as we saw this morning across portions of the east coast metro and over towards Naples. While that temporarily stabilized the atmosphere, things should destabilize again late morning into the afternoon as we approach peak heating. Additional showers and storms are expected through this evening. Locally heavy rain will be the main threat, however an isolated stronger storm with gusty winds can't be ruled out especially across the lake region and over into Palm Beach. High temps today will be in the low to mid 90s. Combine that with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s and peak heat indices will be over 100 degrees this afternoon. While some locations may approach heat advisory criteria, the expected afternoon convection and cloud cover will should keep many locations from reaching criteria, so held off on headlines for now.
Convection over the land will wane late this evening and it'll be a mild night with lows ranging from the lower 70s around the lake to around 80 close to the coasts. Overnight precipitation will be almost a carbon copy of this morning with most convection remaining over the waters, however some pre-dawn showers and storms may impact the far southern peninsula again.
On Sunday the mid/upper level trough moves further off to the east, however hi-res models depict a surface trough across the peninsula during the day. This, along with the sea-breezes, should be the primary focus for convection on Sunday. With steering flows remaining light, will need to monitor the threat again for isolated urban flooding across the metro. High temps will be in the low to mid 90s. Depending on how much early morning convection occurs will play a role into whether or not heat advisories will be needed across the metro, but decision will remain tricky with afternoon/evening convection expected.
Long Term
(Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 253pm EDT Sat Jun 8 2024
.Sunday Night Through Monday Night... An mid to upper level ridge of high pressure will build over the Western Atlantic waters, as a mid to upper level low develops over the Western Gulf of Mexico. This will allow for the the steering flow to remain south southwest over South Florida allowing for deep tropical moisture to start to work into the region from the Caribbean Sea. This in turn will allow for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop over South Florida with the focus over the interior and east coast metro areas where the sea breezes collide.
Highs on Monday will be around 90 degrees over most areas except for the west coast metro areas where they will be in the mid to upper 80s. Temperatures will remain warm at night with lows in the mid to upper 70s except around 80 over the metro areas.
.Tuesday through Friday Of Next Week... The long range models are showing that high pressure will remain over the Western Atlantic waters with the mid to upper level low over the Western Gulf of Mexico. At the same time, the models are showing a tropical disturbance to move northward from the Caribbean Sea into the Central of eastern Gulf of Mexico. This will allow for the continuation of the south southwest wind flow over South Florida and allow for very deep tropical moisture to work into South Florida from the Caribbean sea. Therefore, likely to widespread rains along with some thunderstorms are forecast for South Florida for the middle to end of next week. Some of the rains and thunderstorms could also produce heavy rains over South Florida during this time frame. More on this in the hydro section below.
Highs for this time will also be cooler over South Florida mainly in the 80s due to the cloud cover and rains. However, the lows will be warm across South Florida with mid to upper 70s interior areas to around 80 metro areas.
Marine
Issued at 1200pm EDT Sat Jun 8 2024
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible over area waters this weekend which may result in locally hazardous winds and seas. Outside of convection, mostly benign conditions are expected with winds 5-15 kts and out of the south/southwest and seas 2 ft or less.
Hydrology
The long range models are showing that the PWAT (Precipitable Water) values over South Florida will be increasing to 2.5 to 2.8 inches over South Florida for the middle to end of next week due to the deep tropical moisture working into South Florida. These PWAT (Precipitable Water) values will be near or at the maximum PWAT (Precipitable Water) values for this time of year.
These high PWAT (Precipitable Water) values will allow heavy rainfall to occur over the region from Tuesday through Friday evening. These heavy rains will allow for some flooding conditions to develop over South Florida for the middle to end of next week, as the grounds are becoming saturated from the daily showers and thunderstorms that been ongoing for the last several days.
NOAA Miami FL Office: Watches - Warnings - Advisories
FL...None. AM...None. GM...None.
