History of 3 seeds vs. 14 seeds in March Madness (2024)

Twenty-three No. 14 seeds have shocked a No. 3 in men's NCAA tournament play, with Oakland becoming the most recent surprise in the 2024 tournament, when the Golden Grizzlies stunned Kentucky. While 3s have generally had their way with 14s since the NCAA tournament expanded in 1985, the lower seed has won enough to catch our attention.

Here's everything you need to know about 14 seeds vs. 3 seeds in March Madness.

History of 14 vs. 3 seeds in March Madness

Twenty-three No. 14 seeds have upset 3 seeds since 1985, giving them a 23-133 record all-time. That equates to a 14.74 win percentage.

Here are all of the times it's ever happened.

Some more tidbits:

• In 20of the 39years since the tournament field expanded to 64 teams, at least one No. 14 seed has triumphed over a No. 3 seed.
• Only two 14 seeds have ever advanced past the second round: 1986 Cleveland State and 1997 Chattanooga.
• No. 14 seeds are 12-9 in matches decided by three points or fewer. Three of the last five 14-over-3 upsets (Georgia State over Baylor and UAB over Iowa State in 2015, Abilene Christian over Texas in 2021) were decided by one point.
• The biggest upset in a 14 vs. 3 game — 14 points — is tied between SFA's win in 2016andwhen Ohio topped Georgetown 97-83 in 2010.
• Only one 14-3 upset has gone to overtime. That was Old Dominion-Villanova in 1995, which required three extra sessions.
• A 14 seed beat a 3 seed for seven straight years between 1986-92. That streak was snapped in 1993.
• There was a four-year stretch between 2013-16 where a 14 seed upset a 3.
• No school that's earned a 3 seed has lost to a 14 seed more than once. On the flip side, Weber State has won two opening round games as a 14 seed: 1995 vs. Michigan State and 1999 vs. North Carolina.

How much more likely is a 14-3 upset than a 15-2 upset?

A 14-3 upset is two times more likely than a 15-2 upset. Eleven 15 seeds have pulled off the upset since 1985.

Here's the full list:

How much more likely is a 13-4 upset than a 14-3 upset?

Teams on the 13 seed line have 33 wins in the opening round, meaning it's happened 10 more times than the 14-over-3 variety. Here's the full list of 13s that have topped 4s: